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Strategic Miscalculations of the Arab Gulf States: A Chronological Analysis of the Regional Shift in the Balance of Power in Favor of Iran



The current escalation in the conflict with Iran is not solely the result of short-term events. Rather, it is the outcome of a series of strategic miscalculations made by the Arab Gulf states since the 1970s. These errors concern security strategy, regional diplomacy, military structure, and economic development.

The following analysis chronologically outlines the most important strategic errors that have contributed to the fact that states such as Saudi Arabia (KSA), United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman now find themselves in a strategically difficult position vis-à-vis Iran.

Phase 1 (1979–1988): Misinterpretation of the Iranian Revolution
Event
Iranian Revolution
Error 1: Ideological Rather Than Strategic Analysis
The Gulf monarchies interpreted the revolution primarily as a religious-ideological threat, rather than as a geopolitical transformation of the region.
Instead of building long-term relations with the new Iranian state, many Gulf countries adopted a confrontational stance.
Consequences
  • Permanent strategic rivalry.
  • Lack of diplomatic channels.
  • Increasing militarization of the region.
Error 2: Supporting Iraq Against Iran
During the Iran–Iraq War several Gulf states financially and logistically supported Iraq under Saddam Hussein.
Strategic Error
The Gulf states viewed Iraq as a buffer against Iran, but underestimated:
  • Iraq’s own regional ambitions, and
  • the long-term consequences of militarizing the region.
Consequences
  • Massive military buildup in Iran.
  • Long-term mistrust between Iran and the Gulf states.

Phase 2 (1990–2003): Security Dependence on the United States
Event

Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait

This crisis led to U.S. military intervention in the 
Gulf War.

Error 3: Building a Security Model Based on an External Protector
After the war, the Gulf states significantly expanded their military cooperation with the United States.
Permanent U.S. bases were established, particularly in:
  • Saudi Arabia,
  • Qatar, and
  • Bahrain.
Strategic Error
The states did not develop an independent regional security structure.
Instead, a model emerged in which:
  • The United States provided military protection.
  • The Gulf states provided financial resources.
Consequences
  • Structural dependence on Washington.
  • Limited military autonomy.

Phase 3 (2003–2011): Miscalculation After the Iraq War
Event
Iraq War
The overthrow of Saddam Hussein dramatically altered the regional balance of power.
Error 4: Supporting Policies That Strengthened Iran’s Influence
Iraq had previously served as a strategic counterweight to Iran.
However, after the fall of the regime, a new political system emerged in which Iran-friendly parties gained significant influence.
Consequences
Iran gained considerable influence in:
  • Iraq,
  • Syria, and
  • Lebanon.

Phase 4 (2011–2019): Response to the Arab Spring
Event
Arab Spring
Error 5: Militarization of Regional Conflicts
Instead of pursuing diplomatic solutions, several Gulf states supported military interventions and proxy conflicts.
Examples include:
  • Support for groups in Syria.
  • Military intervention in the
 Yemen war.

Consequences

These conflicts resulted in:

  • Rising military expenditures.
  • Greater influence for Iranian allies.
  • Increased regional instability.


Phase 5 (2017–2021): Internal Division Among Gulf States

Event

Qatar crisis

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt imposed a blockade on Qatar.

Error 6: Fragmentation of the Regional Alliance

Instead of developing a common security strategy against Iran, the Gulf states became entangled in internal conflicts.

Consequences

  • Weakening of the
Golf-Kooperationsrat.
  • Loss of political credibility.
  • Strategic advantage for Iran.


Phase 6 (2020–Present): Strategic Ambiguity
Event
Abraham Accords
Some Gulf states moved toward normalization with Israel.
Error 7: Multi-Track and Contradictory Foreign Policy
The Gulf states simultaneously pursue multiple strategies:
  • Cooperation with the United States.
  • Cautious rapprochement with Iran.
  • Cooperation with Israel.
Consequences
This policy produces:
  • Strategic ambiguity.
  • Limited deterrence.
  • Increased regional tensions.


Overall Assessment
The current situation is the result of several structural miscalculations over decades.
Key Strategic Errors
  1. Misinterpretation of the Iranian Revolution.
  2. Support for Iraq during the Iran–Iraq War.
  3. Dependence on U.S. military protection.
  4. Miscalculation following the 2003 Iraq War.
  5. Militarization of regional conflicts.
  6. Internal divisions within the Gulf Cooperation Council.
  7. Contradictory foreign policy strategies.


Conclusion
The current crisis demonstrates that economic wealth alone does not guarantee strategic security.
Today, the Gulf states face the challenge of:
  • Building their own military capabilities.
  • Strengthening regional diplomacy.
  • Reducing their economic and infrastructural vulnerabilities.